Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Elva
Weather forecast for 7 days · Tartu County, Estonia · updated 13:45
7-day weather in Elva
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
 overcast |
13.5 ° | 6.1 ° | 0.0 mm | 6.8 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
 drizzle |
13.0 ° | 7.6 ° | 2.9 mm | 6.9 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
overcast |
11.5 ° | 6.4 ° | 0.0 mm | 4.8 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
overcast |
10.5 ° | 5.1 ° | 0.0 mm | 4.7 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
10.4 ° | 6.9 ° | 2.4 mm | 3.1 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
9.4 ° | 4.7 ° | 0.3 mm | 2.5 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
 fog |
8.0 ° | 1.7 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.1 m/s |
Weather and climate in Elva
Elva is a town among pine forests and lakes, about twenty kilometres south-west of Tartu, with Lake Verevi and Lake Arbi inside the town. The climate is inland: summers are warm, winters cold and the first autumn frosts come early.
Among forests and lakes the minimums on a clear night can be lower than in the city of Tartu. The overnight minimums have a separate column in the daily table, and the model agreement panel shows how reliable the forecast is.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.