Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Rapla
Weather forecast for 7 days · Rapla County, Estonia · updated 15:45
For tomorrow's high temperature the models agree: 9 models give 11.5...12.9 °C, a spread of 1.4 degrees.
7-day weather in Rapla
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 26 October |
 rain |
11.6 ° | 8.8 ° | 3.7 mm | 7.3 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
rain |
12.3 ° | 9.0 ° | 2.9 mm | 6.1 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
 drizzle |
9.8 ° | 7.2 ° | 0.2 mm | 5.6 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
10.5 ° | 6.7 ° | 2.7 mm | 3.7 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
11.5 ° | 5.4 ° | 3.4 mm | 4.2 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
overcast |
8.4 ° | 5.3 ° | 0.0 mm | 3.9 m/s |
| Sunday 1 November |
overcast |
8.9 ° | 5.1 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.1 m/s |
Weather and climate in Rapla
Rapla lies between the sea and the interior: far enough from the coast for winters to be colder than in Tallinn, but close enough for big storms to reach it as well.
The boundary of precipitation often runs across Rapla County - rain to the west, dry weather to the east. The model agreement panel shows how firmly tomorrow's rain is actually being forecast.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.