Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Kärdla
Weather forecast for 7 days · Hiiu County, Estonia · updated 14:30
For tomorrow's high temperature the models agree: 9 models give 12.5...13.3 °C, a spread of 0.8 degrees.
7-day weather in Kärdla
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
 drizzle |
11.9 ° | 9.4 ° | 1.3 mm | 8.9 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
drizzle |
12.5 ° | 9.3 ° | 2.7 mm | 6.9 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
drizzle |
13.2 ° | 10.4 ° | 0.2 mm | 6.5 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
drizzle |
11.3 ° | 9.0 ° | 0.2 mm | 6.6 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
12.9 ° | 6.3 ° | 1.8 mm | 4.0 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
11.9 ° | 6.3 ° | 0.6 mm | 3.7 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
overcast |
10.2 ° | 4.0 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.6 m/s |
Weather and climate in Kärdla
Kärdla lies on the northern coast of Hiiumaa and is at the mercy of the sea all year round: winters are among the mildest in Estonia, summers are on the cool side and a windless day is rare. Autumn storms often hit Hiiumaa first.
The weather on the island depends strongly on wind direction - the same air mass can bring sunshine or a low layer of cloud. The nine-model comparison helps you judge whether to head for the ferry tomorrow with confidence or with doubts.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.