Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Tartu
Weather forecast for 7 days · Tartu County, Estonia · updated 14:30
For tomorrow's high temperature the models broadly agree: 9 models give 11.4...13.4 °C, a spread of 2.0 degrees.
7-day weather in Tartu
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
 overcast |
13.7 ° | 7.4 ° | 0.0 mm | 6.0 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
 drizzle |
12.9 ° | 9.0 ° | 5.2 mm | 7.2 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
overcast |
12.2 ° | 6.8 ° | 0.0 mm | 4.6 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
overcast |
11.6 ° | 5.7 ° | 0.0 mm | 4.4 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
11.6 ° | 5.8 ° | 1.8 mm | 3.1 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
9.5 ° | 5.0 ° | 0.3 mm | 2.7 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
 fog |
8.3 ° | 2.3 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.5 m/s |
Weather and climate in Tartu
Tartu is an inland city in the Emajõgi River valley, and its climate is more continental than on the coast: summers are warmer, winters colder and the first autumn frosts arrive earlier. In clear weather fog gathers in the river valley and can linger for a long time in the morning.
Inland, summer thunderstorms are frequent and develop quickly. The live lightning map shows whether thunder will reach Tartu, and in the accuracy leaderboard you can see which model has been closest to the mark in southern Estonia over recent weeks.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.