Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Pärnu
Weather forecast for 7 days · Pärnu County, Estonia · updated 15:15
For tomorrow's high temperature the models broadly agree: 9 models give 11.4...13.4 °C, a spread of 2.0 degrees.
7-day weather in Pärnu
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
 overcast |
12.6 ° | 7.1 ° | 0.0 mm | 7.9 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
 rain |
12.0 ° | 9.5 ° | 5.0 mm | 9.8 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
overcast |
11.3 ° | 8.7 ° | 0.0 mm | 8.3 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
overcast |
10.9 ° | 7.8 ° | 0.0 mm | 6.9 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
 drizzle |
10.8 ° | 7.5 ° | 3.9 mm | 4.9 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
11.4 ° | 5.6 ° | 3.9 mm | 2.8 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
overcast |
9.0 ° | 1.5 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.5 m/s |
Weather and climate in Pärnu
The weather in Pärnu is shaped by the shallow, warm Pärnu Bay: in summer the water by the beach warms up quickly, and on a hot day the sea breeze brings freshness to the shore. In autumn and winter storms the south-westerly wind pushes water into the bay, which makes Pärnu vulnerable to high water levels.
For anyone interested in beach weather, it is useful to follow the wind speed in the daily table - with an offshore wind the sea is calm, with an onshore wind the waves rise. The model agreement panel tells you how reliable tomorrow's beach weather really is.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.