Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Tallinn
Weather forecast for 7 days · Harju County, Estonia · updated 14:30
For tomorrow's high temperature the models broadly agree: 9 models give 11.7...13.3 °C, a spread of 1.6 degrees.
7-day weather in Tallinn
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
 overcast |
12.2 ° | 7.2 ° | 0.0 mm | 8.1 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
 drizzle |
12.0 ° | 9.8 ° | 2.1 mm | 8.4 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
overcast |
12.9 ° | 10.2 ° | 0.0 mm | 6.8 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
drizzle |
11.5 ° | 8.3 ° | 0.8 mm | 5.9 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
9.9 ° | 6.5 ° | 3.5 mm | 4.1 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
10.3 ° | 6.4 ° | 0.6 mm | 2.8 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
 fog |
8.4 ° | 4.7 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.1 m/s |
Weather and climate in Tallinn
Tallinn lies on the southern shore of the Gulf of Finland, and the influence of the sea is felt every day: spring arrives later on the coast than inland, autumn stays warm for longer and winter frosts are milder than in southern Estonia. Wind is a frequent companion in Tallinn - especially north-westerly and northerly winds, which blow straight into the city from the open sea.
In a coastal city the models often disagree about the boundary between cloud and showers, because the sea and the land warm at different rates. The nine-model comparison shows straight away whether rain will reach Tallinn or stay out over the gulf.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.