Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Narva
Weather forecast for 7 days · Ida-Viru County, Estonia · updated 13:45
For tomorrow's high temperature the models broadly agree: 9 models give 11.1...13.1 °C, a spread of 2.0 degrees.
7-day weather in Narva
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
 drizzle |
11.4 ° | 8.3 ° | 0.7 mm | 6.5 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
drizzle |
11.6 ° | 9.8 ° | 2.1 mm | 6.9 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
overcast |
10.6 ° | 8.0 ° | 0.0 mm | 5.4 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
overcast |
10.6 ° | 6.3 ° | 0.0 mm | 4.8 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
8.6 ° | 6.3 ° | 2.1 mm | 3.3 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
drizzle |
10.2 ° | 6.5 ° | 0.3 mm | 2.9 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
overcast |
9.4 ° | 5.0 ° | 0.0 mm | 3.0 m/s |
Weather and climate in Narva
Narva is the easternmost city in Estonia, and its climate is the most continental in the country: in winter Narva is often the coldest place in Estonia, and in summer the hottest. The influence of the Gulf of Finland is weaker here than on the northern coast, and temperature swings are larger.
It is at the extremes that the models often diverge - the edge of a continental air mass can shift by hundreds of kilometres. The range across the nine models shows honestly how large that uncertainty is at any given moment.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.