Ilmapiir
nine weather models, one clear answer
Weather in Keila
Weather forecast for 7 days · Harju County, Estonia · updated 13:15
These figures come from the last successful update - the connection to the weather data source is temporarily interrupted.
For tomorrow's high temperature the models broadly agree: 9 models give 11.4...13.2 °C, a spread of 1.8 degrees.
7-day weather in Keila
| Day | Weather | High | Low | Rain | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday 25 October |
overcast |
11.2 ° | 7.0 ° | 0.0 mm | 7.2 m/s |
| Monday 26 October |
 rain |
11.4 ° | 8.8 ° | 3.1 mm | 8.6 m/s |
| Tuesday 27 October |
 drizzle |
12.6 ° | 9.4 ° | 0.2 mm | 6.9 m/s |
| Wednesday 28 October |
drizzle |
10.6 ° | 8.5 ° | 0.3 mm | 5.4 m/s |
| Thursday 29 October |
drizzle |
11.6 ° | 3.4 ° | 0.9 mm | 3.1 m/s |
| Friday 30 October |
 fog |
10.2 ° | 3.3 ° | 0.0 mm | 1.9 m/s |
| Saturday 31 October |
overcast |
9.0 ° | 2.0 ° | 0.0 mm | 2.0 m/s |
Weather and climate in Keila
Keila lies on the northern Estonian coastal lowland, only about ten kilometres from the sea, and the influence of the Gulf of Finland softens the winters here. Keila-Joa and Lohusalu beach are close by, so beach weather is an everyday question for people in Keila.
In a town near the coast the boundary of summer showers is capricious - rain may stay out over the sea or reach Keila itself. The lightning map and the nine-model comparison show which scenario is more likely.
Where this forecast comes from
Most weather sites show a single model and give the impression that the answer is certain. Ilmapiir compares nine national weather models at once: ECMWF, Germany's DWD ICON, the US GFS, the UK Met Office, Météo-France, Norway's MET, Canada's GEM, Japan's JMA and China's CMA. When the models agree, you can rely on the forecast; when they diverge, it is more honest to say that it is only a probability.
Ilmapiir also records the measured temperature every hour and compares it with what each model promised a day earlier. This gives a rolling 30-day average error for every model - an answer to the question of whom to believe.
Thunderstorms and warnings
The lightning map shows strikes in real time, and your phone can alert you when lightning strikes within a chosen distance of a chosen place. Official warnings from the Estonian Environment Agency are shown in the interactive view, and the rain radar shows where it is raining right now - the radar image updates every 10 minutes.